Two tokens can trade at the same price yet be worth wildly different amounts, because price alone ignores how much supply is still locked. This calculator turns supply figures and an upcoming unlock into the numbers that actually matter for valuation: circulating market cap, fully diluted valuation, and the dilution each unlock adds.
How it works
The calculator applies the standard tokenomics formulas:
circulating market cap = price × circulating supply
fully diluted valuation (FDV) = price × total supply
FDV / market cap ratio = total supply / circulating supply
unlock dilution % = next unlock / circulating supply × 100The FDV-to-market-cap ratio is a pure supply ratio, so it is independent of
price. A ratio well above 1 flags that most of the supply has yet to hit the
market — a structural headwind unless demand keeps pace.
Worked example
Suppose a token trades at 0.50, with 100 million circulating out of a 500
million total supply. Market cap is 50 million, FDV is 250 million, and the
ratio is 5x — meaning four times the current liquid supply is still locked. If
the next unlock releases 20 million tokens, that is a 20% increase in
circulating supply. Compare that dilution figure against your view of demand
growth: an unlock that adds 20 percent supply needs at least 20 percent more
buying just to hold the price flat.
Why FDV matters for due diligence
Many new tokens launch with a tiny circulating supply — sometimes under 5 percent of the total — to create a low nominal market cap while the FDV quietly runs into billions. This is not fraud by itself, but it is a reason to interrogate the vesting schedule carefully. If team and investor allocations unlock in the first 12 to 18 months, the sell-side pressure can dwarf any organic buying.
A healthy tokenomics design typically keeps the FDV-to-market-cap ratio below 4x at launch. Above 10x, the gap is almost always caused by large early-investor or team allocations on short vesting schedules — exactly the scenario where the dilution percentage matters most.
Reading the dilution percentage correctly
The unlock dilution percentage tells you the size of the potential supply shock, not the guaranteed price move. Three other factors govern the actual impact:
- Holder intent. If vesting recipients are long-term believers, they may not sell even when tokens unlock. If they are mercenary yield farmers, most will.
- Order book depth. A liquid, deep market absorbs new supply with less price impact than a thin one.
- Concurrent demand. A product launch, listing on a major exchange, or a partnership announcement can offset dilution if it brings new buyers.
Use the dilution percentage as a risk flag — a 30 percent unlock in one month is worth investigating even if the absolute dollar amounts look small.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Confusing total supply and max supply. Some protocols cap inflation at a fixed maximum (max supply); others can mint more governance tokens forever. Use whichever ceiling applies to compute the worst-case FDV.
- Ignoring protocol-controlled reserves. Tokens held by a DAO treasury still count toward total supply but may never reach the open market. Note whether treasury tokens are included in your “total supply” figure.
- Anchoring to the FDV as a target price. FDV is a valuation floor assumption at today’s price, not a price target. It only equals market cap when all tokens are circulating.