Run hills by effort, not by the watch
On hilly courses a fixed pace target is meaningless: holding 5:00/km up a 10% climb is a completely different effort than holding it on the flat. This tool converts your flat-ground pace into the equivalent pace for any gradient, so you keep a steady metabolic effort over rolling terrain — slowing the right amount uphill and, on moderate descents, speeding up to take advantage of gravity.
How it works
The energy cost of running depends strongly on gradient. Minetti et al. (2002) fitted the cost, in joules per kilogram per metre, as a polynomial in the fractional grade i:
C(i) = 155.4*i^5 - 30.4*i^4 - 43.3*i^3 + 46.3*i^2 + 19.5*i + 3.6
On the flat (i = 0) the cost is 3.6 J/kg/m. At a fixed metabolic effort, sustainable speed is inversely proportional to cost, so the equivalent pace on a grade is your flat pace scaled by the cost ratio:
pace_hill = pace_flat * C(i) / C(0)
A positive grade raises the cost and slows you; a moderate negative grade lowers it and speeds you up.
Example
For a flat target of 5:00/km on an 8% climb, the cost ratio pushes your equivalent pace well past 6:00/km — that slower number represents the same effort, not a loss of fitness. Conversely, on a gentle downhill the tool returns a faster pace, reflecting the energy gravity gives back. The cheapest running of all sits around a 10 to 15% downhill, where the curve dips below flat before steeper descents drive the cost up again through braking.
Practical use cases for grade-adjusted pace
Trail and mountain racing. Trail runners use grade-adjusted pace to set even-effort targets across courses with constantly changing gradient. The standard Garmin or Coros “GAP” (Grade Adjusted Pace) metric uses a similar polynomial model under the hood. Knowing your adjusted pace lets you judge how your effort compares to a flat-road equivalent and whether you are on track for your goal despite slowing on climbs.
Uphill intervals. Running hills at the same grade-adjusted pace as flat intervals ensures the metabolic stress is equivalent. If your flat interval target is 4:30/km, use this tool to find the appropriate split for a 6% climb and run to that number rather than forcing the flat pace uphill, which would represent a much harder effort.
Downhill running caution. The model shows that moderate descents (roughly 5–15%) have a lower metabolic cost than flat running, which is why it returns a faster pace. However, this is the case only for metabolic energy, not muscular damage. Long or steep downhills cause significant eccentric loading of the quadriceps — the muscle lengthening under load that leads to delayed soreness. An appropriate downhill pace for a short interval on fresh legs is very different from the appropriate downhill pace deep in an ultramarathon when the legs are already damaged. The grade adjustment handles energy; load management is a separate, judgment-based decision.
Gradient ranges. Minetti’s data is reliable across roughly −45% to +45% grade. Beyond those extremes (very steep ski-slope angles) the extrapolation becomes unreliable and the model is likely to underestimate cost. Within the normal range of road running and trail racing (−20% to +25%), the polynomial fits well.
Remember this captures only metabolic cost: long descents still batter your quadriceps through eccentric loading, so pace those by feel and build the specific durability through training.