What annual reduction rate does SBTi require?

For near-term 1.5°C-aligned targets, SBTi's absolute contraction approach requires a minimum linear reduction of about 4.2% of base-year emissions every year. Well-below-2°C alignment requires at least 2.5% per year. This tool applies those fixed rates.

What is a carbon budget in this context?

It is the total emissions released along the whole pathway — the sum of each year's emissions from base year to target year. A steeper early reduction shrinks the budget, which matters because cumulative emissions, not the end-point, drive warming.

Why is the reduction linear rather than percentage-of-previous-year?

SBTi's absolute contraction method reduces emissions by a fixed share of the base year each year, producing a straight line. That is more ambitious than a compounding percentage of the shrinking prior-year figure, which would taper off too slowly.

Does hitting the target year mean net zero?

Not by itself. The pathway gets gross emissions down to the target level, but true net zero also requires permanently neutralising any residual emissions with high-quality removals. Use the linear mode's residual field to model that remainder.

Is my data sent anywhere?

No. Every calculation runs in your browser with JavaScript. None of the figures you enter are uploaded, stored, or shared.

What is the Net Zero Target Pathway Calculator?

Generate a year-by-year net zero emission-reduction pathway from a base year using a linear target, the SBTi 1.5°C rate (4.2% per year), or the well-below-2°C rate (2.5% per year). See required annual reduction, target-year emissions, and cumulative carbon budget. Runs in your browser. It runs free in your browser on Gera Tools, with nothing uploaded.

Net Zero Target Pathway Calculator

Name: Net Zero Target Pathway Calculator
Creator: Gera Tools
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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A credible net zero plan is a year-by-year trajectory, not a single distant promise. This calculator turns a base-year footprint and a target year into a concrete reduction pathway with annual milestones, the required pace, and the cumulative carbon budget you are committing to.

How it works

The tool builds the pathway from a constant absolute reduction each year:

SBTi 1.5°C:  annual reduction = base emissions × 4.2%
SBTi 2°C:    annual reduction = base emissions × 2.5%
linear:      annual reduction = (base − residual) / (target year − base year)

emissions(year) = base − annual reduction × (year − base year)
carbon budget   = sum of emissions across every year on the path

The SBTi modes apply a fixed share of the base year every year — the absolute contraction approach — so the line is straight and the pace never slackens. The linear mode lets you aim at a custom residual you plan to neutralise at the end with carbon removals.

The three pathway types compared

Mode	Annual reduction basis	Use when
SBTi 1.5°C	4.2% of base-year emissions	Aiming for the most ambitious near-term science-based target
SBTi well-below 2°C	2.5% of base-year emissions	Near-term target with slightly lower ambition
Custom linear	Divide total required reduction by years	You have a corporate target that doesn’t match an SBTi rate

Why the carbon budget matters more than the endpoint

A pathway that delays steep cuts may still reach the same 2040 endpoint as a front-loaded one, but the area under the curve — the cumulative carbon budget — will be larger. Because warming is driven by total cumulative CO2 in the atmosphere, a late-steepening path does more physical damage than an early-steepening one, even at identical endpoints. This calculator shows the budget as a sum of annual emissions so you can compare pathways on that metric, not just the final year.

Worked example

A company at 50,000 tCO2e in 2025 on the SBTi 1.5°C path must cut 50,000 × 4.2% = 2,100 tCO2e every year. By 2040 (15 years) that is 15 × 2,100 = 31,500 tCO2e removed, leaving roughly 18,500 tCO2e. The cumulative budget over the path is the sum of each year’s emissions from 50,000 down to ~18,500 — roughly 514,000 tCO2e across the 15 years.

For genuine net zero, the residual 18,500 tCO2e would then need to be permanently neutralised by high-quality removals. Set that figure as the residual target in the linear mode to see what additional removal obligations you are implicitly accepting.

Common planning mistakes

Treating the target year as net zero. Reaching a reduced-emissions level is not net zero unless the residual is also covered by durable removals.
Using a percentage-of-prior-year reduction. Compounding a percentage reduction off each year’s smaller base looks the same in year one but tapers too slowly by year five. SBTi’s absolute contraction method is deliberately more demanding.
Ignoring scope boundaries. A pathway that covers only Scope 1 and 2 may miss a Scope 3 footprint that is five times larger. Always clarify which scopes are in base-year emissions before setting the target.